<p><a href="http://www.wearebsm.com/managed_objects/crystal_ball2_bmwPreview.jpg"><img align="right" src="http://www.wearebsm.com/managed_objects/crystal_ball2_bmwPreview.jpg" width="298" height="196"></a>When you are sixteen years old, you know everything.&nbsp; At least I thought I did.&nbsp; </p> <p>It was the summer before my freshman year of college at the University of Delaware.&nbsp; My Dad took the day off of work to take me to the main campus in Newark for freshman orientation.</p> <p>We met with counselors, took a tour of the campus, signed up for meal plans and went to the parent/new student barbecue.&nbsp; Over hot dogs and corn on the cob - my Dad asked me a question -</p> <blockquote> <p><font color="#545454" face="Verdana">Soon you will be in college.&nbsp; What will you study and what will you do with it?</font></p></blockquote> <p>With the unbounded certainty of youth, I declared.</p> <blockquote> <p><font color="#545454" face="Verdana">I want to be an Economist.</font></p></blockquote> <p>I had done my home work, researched careers, done summer internships to rule out what I did not want to be and to uncover what I did.&nbsp; I was going to study the science of business, of nations, of the the funds that flow through them, and the people who drive them...&nbsp; I was going to learn to predict the future.</p> <p>It was not until my senior year of college that I was introduced to a then comparatively new field of economic application - <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Econometrics">econometrics</a>.&nbsp; The link will take you to a broader definition, courtesy of Wikipedia, but in short, econometrics combines the theory of economics with quantification and statistics to actually measure and predict economic outcomes.&nbsp; Using punch cards and a <a href="http://www.computermuseumgroningen.nl/manuals/burroughs.html">Burroughs 7700</a>&nbsp; (a computer you now find only in museums) we learned to model past and present outcomes of the national and world economy.&nbsp; We learned about variables and assumptions and the impact they would have when combined together.&nbsp; And then came the rub.&nbsp; The greatest variables all of - perceptions of outcomes and the changes in people's behavior that would result from them.</p> <p>That's when it&nbsp; hit me.&nbsp; Once economists tell people what will happen - using their computerized crystal balls - people react to that information and change their behaviors.&nbsp; And, in that case, your model and your predictions would often be WRONG.</p> <blockquote> <p>Maybe I didn't want to be an economist after all - I hate to be wrong!</p></blockquote> <p>And so on graduation, I went into the world of business.&nbsp; Starting in banking, moving on to the emerging field of electronics and technology, and later into entrepreneurship.</p> <p>Almost 20 years after freshman orientation, I went back to school again.&nbsp; This time at Arizona State University in their executive MBA program.&nbsp; I did not go back to get my MBA for the degree - but for the learning.&nbsp; After almost 20 years in business - things had changed - the rules were different, and my crystal ball was in jeopardy of getting cloudy.&nbsp; And I began to see that it was not just my crystal ball that was flawed.&nbsp; We were at the peak of the Dot.Com Bubble - soon for many of us in the technology industry, the bubble would burst and our crystal balls would clear to show some serious cracks.</p> <p>In class, we learned about the many bubbles throughout history from Dr. Stephen Happel and the Blue Chip Forecasts from <a href="http://wpcarey.asu.edu/bluechip/">Dr. Lee McPheters</a>.&nbsp; We went to Washington D.C. to see how it worked from the inside, and later to Europe and China to see the changes in our world first hand.&nbsp; But equally important, I learned what was happening in a wide range of businesses from my fellow students , leaders in healthcare, investments, and industry.&nbsp; </p> <p>It was a reminder of what I had learned long ago.&nbsp; That economics is not a subject but a study... of business, of nations, of the funds that flow through them, and the people who drive them.&nbsp; And so I began to study economics again on my own.</p> <p>As business people, perhaps we all should pay more attention to economics.&nbsp; </p> <p>You see, it's not what we study or even the answers that makes a difference.</p> <p>But what we do with the knowledge, once we find it, that most surely will.</p> <p>Thanks for stopping by.&nbsp; Stay tuned.</p> <blockquote> <p>Joan Koerber-Walker</p></blockquote> <div style="display:inline;margin:0;padding:0;" id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:a043ea66-c385-4b0a-b3d8-e38c340af6ec" class="wlWriterSmartContent">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Joan%20Koerber-Walker" rel="tag">Joan Koerber-Walker</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/CorePurpose" rel="tag">CorePurpose</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/economy" rel="tag">economy</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/economists" rel="tag">economists</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/education" rel="tag">education</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/econometrics" rel="tag">econometrics</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/predictions" rel="tag">predictions</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/business" rel="tag">business</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/business%20tips" rel="tag">business tips</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/going%20back%20to%20school" rel="tag">going back to school</a></div>